This week’s Voter Gravity Presidential flash poll was conducted in Georgia. It was conducted with GOP primary voters who voted in 4 of the last 4 primaries in addition to both of the last 2 Presidential primaries, as our target for these polls remains exclusively the Republican base.
The poll was conducted using Gravity’s touchtone survey tool, and had 6,745 respondents from across Georgia. All our clients have access to this same resource to poll voters in their respective districts at any time.
Scott Walker continues to do very well with top tier GOP Primary voters across all states within this polling, as do Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee. Breitbart’s recent article on Voter Gravity polling referenced Rand Paul’s low numbers in state and national polls in comparison to his CPAC win. There is a pretty simple reason for this. A Voter Gravity poll recipient is at least 24 years old, with most being 40 or older.
Why is this? Because we are drawing from the voter’s election history to determine status as a consistent GOP primary voter. Younger voters have not had the opportunity to establish such historical voting patterns.
This asks a much more significant question for candidates like Senator Paul, who do very well in younger demographics, like those who participated in the CPAC straw poll. Can he carry GOP primary voters over 40, who as the General Social Survey and Fifty Thirty Eight Politics have shown that, “The average 'strong Republican' was 52.3 years old in the 2010 and 2012.”
Unquestionably, the dynamics change in a general election, but does carrying the smaller demographic of youth voters matter in a Republican Primary? As any campaign manager will tell you - mathematically, the millennial vote is not as important as older voters in the GOP primary.
Therefore – narrative is going to matter sooner than later. How issues are shaped and related to the respective demographics is going to play an important role in what supporters the respective candidates can earn.
Surprising absolutely no one, when the GOP Presidential Primary becomes a real race – the winning candidate will define a narrative that resonates with older voters to secure a win, but keeps younger voters interested enough to translate to the general election.
With regards to millennial voters, one thing remains very clear – their top concerns are not the same as older voters, with Reason-Rupe Polling actually calling them the “Politically Unclaimed Generation.”
So, what narratives will successfully walk the tight rope that bridges older and younger voters?
We don’t yet know, but the smart campaigns should be in the field doing issues based ID work right now, so they can make the right decision when the time comes. In 2016, the name ID leads will wear off, and the candidate who can best emotionally connect to voters will win the day. Data must help inform that message and tone, and 2015 is when that research should be done.
This is why Voter Gravity exists – to provide tools for data collection that inform decision making, and turn data into votes.
If you are interested in signing up with Voter Gravity to help your campaign or organization, simply request a demo of our system here.