We’ve decided at Voter Gravity we’re going to make these “flash polls” a weekly occurrence. To understand the dynamics and reasoning behind what we’re doing, we’re using Voter Gravity’s touchtone survey feature to try and gauge support for 2016 candidates among the super primary GOP voters. Click here to see the poll results. It was run on Saturday, January 24, 2015 of GOP primary voters in Iowa who have voted in 5 of the last 5 GOP primaries: 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, and 2014. We’re of the opinion that, especially in primaries, vote history is a very significant indicator in likelihood to vote (see George Hawley’s white paper on turnout).
There are limitations to doing touchtone surveys with such a potentially large GOP field: you can only list 9 options. We believe that there are at least 7 others who should be in a flash poll to gauge interest (thus the 400 who would support Other): Marco Rubio, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina should be included, and no doubt we will rotate some of those names in for future “flash polls.”
So take the poll for what it’s worth: hardcore GOP primary voters who are very likely to be involved in voting in 2016 primaries and caucuses, letting us know how they feel about potential GOP nominees. One interesting note about the below: Huckabee and Romney are well know quantities in Iowa already, and quite frankly, so is the name Bush. Scott Walker is the really interesting number. He is quickly being considered a Tier 1 candidate, which is no real surprise.